Fuel surcharge outlook for 2027
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook released October 6, 2026 expects U.S. diesel to average $5.19 in 2026 and $4.49 in 2027. As a scenario, if diesel held at that 2027 average, each carrier’s current table would give ground fuel surcharges of 27.50% at UPS, 25.00% at FedEx, 21.75% at OnTrac and 17.75% at Amazon Shipping. That is not a forecast of the average 2027 surcharge: weekly prices move around the average, and carriers change their tables.
Diesel forecast and projected surcharges
Diesel: actual and forecast
Scenario: ground fuel surcharge at the forecast diesel path, percent
| Ground service | This week or next | Nov–Dec 2026 diesel $5.51 | 2027 average diesel $4.49 | Each 25¢ of diesel near 2027 price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS Ground and Ground Saver | 30.25% | 28.25%▼ 2.00 | 27.50%▼ 2.75 | 0.25 percentage points |
| FedEx Ground and Home Delivery | 29.25% | 26.75%▼ 2.50 | 25.00%▼ 4.25 | 0.25 percentage points |
| OnTrac Ground, national index | 27.00% | 24.50%▼ 2.50 | 21.75%▼ 5.25 | 0.75 percentage points |
| Amazon Shipping Ground parcel | 21.50% | 19.75%▼ 1.75 | 17.75%▼ 3.75 | 0.50 percentage points |
Below $5.80, UPS’s new table moves only 0.25 percentage points for every 25¢ drop in diesel, against 0.75 for OnTrac. Under current tables, if diesel falls as EIA forecasts, the gap between UPS and the other ground carriers widens. A fuel cap or a fixed-table clause is how shippers keep that from showing up on the invoice.
Built from EIA’s published annual averages; the rest of the year is the average implied by the annual forecast and actual prices so far. Projections use each carrier’s newest published table and assume no further table changes.
What the EIA expects
- Retail diesel stays above $6 per gallon in October, then declines gradually as crude prices fall and distillate inventories recover.
- Low distillate inventories keep retail diesel above $4 per gallon through 2027.
- Retail margins, squeezed in 2026, recover in 2027, which may slow how quickly lower wholesale prices reach the pump.
How to budget for 2027
Budget fuel as a percentage of net transportation spend, by carrier and service, using the projections above. Add sensitivity: each 25¢ of diesel moves UPS Ground about 0.25 percentage points near 2027 prices and OnTrac about 0.75. Then add the risk the projections can’t show: UPS rewrote its domestic tables five times in 2026 and FedEx twice, and each rewrite raised the surcharge at a given fuel price. The Table Creep Index tracks those changes.
The most reliable way to take that risk off the budget is in the contract: a fuel discount, a cap, or language that holds the agreement to the table in force when it was signed. The calculator shows what each would have saved this year.
Diesel and fuel news
- UPS Resets Fuel Table Nov. 2, Lifts Rates 5.9% Dec. 21Ecommerce Paradise,
- EIA Weekly Fuel Update: Gasoline Mixed, Diesel HigherIndexBox,
- U.S. retailers face record holiday delivery prices from surcharges tied to costlier dieselBNN Bloomberg,
- UPS Joins the 5.9% Club – AgainLogistics Strategies,
- UPS 2027 GRI Announced: What We Know So FarReveel,
- Winter 2026–2027 Outlook Points to Warmer Temperatures and Tight Fuel InventoriesMansfield Energy,
- EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this yearU.S. Energy Information Administration,
- US diesel prices to hit $4.40 per gallon in 2027American Bazaar,
The percentage is published. What you pay is negotiable.
Fuel discounts, caps, accessorial exclusions and table protection are common contract terms. Logistics Contract Optimizer, the publisher of this site, reviews parcel agreements at no cost.
Fuel surcharge forecast questions
What will the UPS fuel surcharge be in 2027?
If diesel averages $4.49 in 2027, as the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook of October 6, 2026 forecasts, UPS Ground’s table effective November 2, 2026 gives about 27.50%. UPS may change its table again, which would move this.
What will the FedEx fuel surcharge be in 2027?
At the EIA’s 2027 forecast of $4.49 diesel, FedEx Ground’s current table gives about 25.00%.
Will fuel surcharges go down in 2027?
The EIA expects diesel to fall from $5.19 on average in 2026 to $4.49 in 2027, so under current tables percentages would ease if that forecast holds. How much depends on each carrier’s table: below $5.80, UPS’s new table falls only 0.25 percentage points for every 27¢ drop in diesel. Carriers can also change tables, which would change the result.
Where does the diesel forecast come from?
From the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, published monthly. This page updates automatically when a new outlook is released.